AI Pause Decision Calculator

Evaluate whether pausing AI development is favorable based on your estimates

A current number of deaths per year

million

B guess for years until AGI, no pause

years

C pause duration, let's say

years

D years until AGI, given a pause (B + C)

50 years

E guess for p(doom), given no pause

F guess p(doom) given a pause

G current world population, about

billion

H deaths before AGI, given no pause (A × B)

2,400 million

I expected deaths from doom, given no pause (E × G)

800 million

J total expected deaths, given no pause (H + I)

3,200 million

K deaths before AGI, given a pause (A × D)

3,000 million

M expected deaths from doom, given a pause (F × G)

400 million

N total expected deaths, given a pause (K + M)

3,400 million

P additional expected deaths from pausing (N - J)

200 million

Q additional chance of humanity ceasing to exist if we don't pause (E - F)

5 %

R amount of effort I'd spend to reduce chances of P people dying by 1%

effort units

S amount of effort I'd spend to reduce chances of humanity gracefully petering out by 1%

effort units

T amount of effort I'd spend to avoid the negative outcomes of pausing AI (R × 100)

100,000 effort units

U amount of effort I'd spend to avoid the negative outcomes of NOT pausing AI (S × Q)

50 effort units

V is an AI pause favorable? (is U greater than T?)
No

Interpretation: If U > T, then an AI pause is favorable. If T > U, then continuing AI development (no pause) is favorable. The calculation compares how much effort you'd expend to prevent the downsides of each option.